SSA CORE OUTLOOK: 17 TO 21 FEBRUARY 2020
17 February: Bank of Namibia’s Economic Outlook. This will be the Bank’s first update for 2020 and it comes ahead of the MPC rate decision on Wednesday. Real GDP growth remained negative in the three quarters reported for 2019 (Q3: -0.8% y/y).
18 February: Nigeria’s January inflation. After reaching a cyclical low of 11.0% last August, a trend increase in Nigeria’s inflation is currently in play. Sustained price pressure mean that the headline rate could print above the 12.0% y/y mark in January. Statistics Mauritius will publish trade statistics for December.
19 February: Rate decisions in Namibia and Zambia; South Africa’s January CPI. Given continued recession and historically low inflation, the Bank of Namibia MPC will likely follow the SARB’s recent action by also reducing its repo rate by 25bp. In South Africa, headline inflation will likely rise due to base effects. In Ghana, we expect the GSS to publish its January PPI.
20 February: Botswana’s December trade balance. Trade dynamics deteriorated in 2019 with a sharp fall in exports (nearly 90% diamonds). In January to November the trade deficit was BWP13.9bn versus a surplus of BWP37mn in the corresponding period in 2018.
21 February: Zambia’s S&P rating update (CCC+/C, stable). Deterioration in Zambia’s fiscal and external balances has seen subsequent downgrades of the country’s ratings in recent past